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The 100 Year N. Gas Myth

SeekingAlpha.com -- by Eamon Keane

It's difficult to read an article on natural gas without the mention of the US' 100 years of natural gas supply. It forms the basis of suggestions for a scaling up of the natural gas intensity of transport and power generation. I'll look at the evidence here.

Excerpts

The Potential Gas Committee (PGC) arrived at similar figures. The 100 year figure originates from their latest report. The PGC figures say nothing about when and at what cost natural gas resources will be produced.

"I think it might not be a bad idea to examine the faith-based assumption that the US has a virtually unlimited supply of natural gas from shale formations that can be extracted at a low price for the indefinite future."

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Submitted Mar 13, 2010 By: UncleCurt

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srchr Champion Author San Jose Posts:2,493 Points:693,595 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:39:17 PM Ignore srchr Report Abuse nat gas in cars would reduce reliance on foreign oil, especially since the obama administration issued an executive order late friday banning offshore drilling that was scheduled to start this july until 2012.
nehemiah Champion Author Portland Posts:1,022 Points:135,520 Joined:Jul 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:35:57 PM Ignore nehemiah Report Abuse whatever
benjy Champion Author Chicago Posts:4,830 Points:894,100 Joined:Nov 2003	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:34:34 PM Ignore benjy Report Abuse Bull, it's a myth.......
nstrdnvstr Champion Author Twin Cities Posts:29,521 Points:3,016,710 Joined:May 2001	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:31:43 PM Ignore nstrdnvstr Report Abuse Is that "100 years" based on today's consumption or future higher (or lower) consumption.
comprof Champion Author Houston Posts:1,784 Points:390,325 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:29:05 PM Ignore comprof Report Abuse We need to use our own resources.
Mooseman1 Champion Author Manitoba Posts:5,551 Points:933,670 Joined:Jul 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:28:47 PM Ignore Mooseman1 Report Abuse I suppose there is always solar energy.
runway12 Champion Author Tacoma Posts:1,119 Points:261,565 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:23:45 PM Ignore runway12 Report Abuse Time to dig out the old history books and see what was said back in the day. I know someday we will make it to the moon, A lot changes in a 100 years
joel27nc Champion Author Raleigh Posts:5,534 Points:888,770 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:23:20 PM Ignore joel27nc Report Abuse Let's make use of the resource.
250FORD Champion Author Minnesota Posts:7,681 Points:1,236,210 Joined:Feb 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:22:31 PM Ignore 250FORD Report Abuse altonb1 " But we DO have an abundance of oil available in this country, too. The only problem with our own domestic oil supply is the environmentalist lobby has (thus far) done a good job of keeping us from harvesting it." Thats not true. The oil companies hold PERMITS and LEASES on over 43,000 acres with little to no drilling. Whos holding up oil production in this country?
unicornpmb Champion Author Buffalo Posts:3,532 Points:652,175 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:20:18 PM Ignore unicornpmb Report Abuse Wonder what they were writing about in 1910 about oil and gas?
REVLAW Champion Author San Antonio Posts:5,424 Points:1,033,090 Joined:Jul 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:17:56 PM Ignore REVLAW Report Abuse People seem to think that the laws of nature shift into neutral when a resource begins to be used. The same forces of nature that were at work in the past to create the resource is at work today in a yet undiscovered area. It is time to challenge the forecasters and the environmentalists.
Saturn93 Champion Author Salt Lake City Posts:4,235 Points:1,013,790 Joined:Oct 2006	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:15:45 PM Ignore Saturn93 Report Abuse Only 100 year's worth? That's OK for me, but what about our kids and grand kids? What about the cost of this resource as it gets used up?
Italianman All-Star Author Twin Cities Posts:956 Points:321,175 Joined:Feb 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:10:06 PM Ignore Italianman Report Abuse Do it!
vulcan96 Champion Author Ohio Posts:17,937 Points:2,130,095 Joined:Aug 2004	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:01:51 PM Ignore vulcan96 Report Abuse time to shut up and just do it !!!
altonb1 Champion Author Pennsylvania Posts:5,032 Points:688,300 Joined:Jul 2005	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:01:16 PM Ignore altonb1 Report Abuse Buddy2264: But we DO have an abundance of oil available in this country, too. The only problem with our own domestic oil supply is the environmentalist lobby has (thus far) done a good job of keeping us from harvesting it.
tml721 Champion Author Dayton Posts:7,390 Points:1,423,255 Joined:Jul 2005	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:01:02 PM Ignore tml721 Report Abuse It will take 100 years to get the bugs out of alternative fuels.
Ticoman54 Champion Author Miami Posts:2,611 Points:586,195 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 7:00:33 PM Ignore Ticoman54 Report Abuse I agree with JoeKR.
THEDodgeman Champion Author Denver Posts:3,068 Points:972,215 Joined:Apr 2005	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:58:34 PM Ignore THEDodgeman Report Abuse won't be here anyway.
altima2008 Champion Author Philadelphia Posts:3,249 Points:769,060 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:56:34 PM Ignore altima2008 Report Abuse Well one thing that is not a myth is speculators, they are a huge problem!
MikLamb Champion Author Texas Posts:3,063 Points:1,202,165 Joined:Jun 2006	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:51:59 PM Ignore MikLamb Report Abuse So it's not 100 years, maybe it's only 83 years, whatever.
ajrn Champion Author Toledo Posts:9,342 Points:2,018,565 Joined:Nov 2003	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:50:44 PM Ignore ajrn Report Abuse going to say.. at least it's 100 years of DOMESTIC fuel..
JoeKR Champion Author New Jersey Posts:4,982 Points:1,110,965 Joined:Feb 2006	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:44:56 PM Ignore JoeKR Report Abuse Regardless - we have a huge, readily available supply of natural gas which if used as a heating fuel and, with little modification, to run our transportation vehicles, would free us from the dependency on imported oil. That would give us time to develop oils replacement in addition to having an enormous impact on the price of oil.
Buddy2264 Champion Author Tampa Posts:6,616 Points:1,383,040 Joined:Oct 2005	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:42:31 PM Ignore Buddy2264 Report Abuse We thought the same thing of OIL once. Natural gas can be a new start, but we will need to have good renewable sources to off set it use to make it last 200 years. Conservation keeps your money in your pocket.
PaylessKY Champion Author Kentucky Posts:3,590 Points:665,355 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:37:04 PM Ignore PaylessKY Report Abuse Does anyone really have the answer to how much or how long it will last?
mjc2002 Rookie Author Utah Posts:72 Points:62,795 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:34:05 PM Ignore mjc2002 Report Abuse we have an incredibly affordable way to run cars... but no one will do it... remember preston tucker? prototypes have been built..... and for 100 years... a TRUE hybrid has moved across the earth @ hundreds of miles per gallon....... they call them diesel-electric locomotives...and cars have been built on the principal but the accelerate too fast
uptherefiners Champion Author Chicago Posts:1,162 Points:273,000 Joined:Jun 2006	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:33:42 PM Ignore uptherefiners Report Abuse carlson: go back to the bong Captain clueless
tedjm1 Champion Author New York Posts:1,527 Points:167,030 Joined:Dec 2006	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:31:01 PM Ignore tedjm1 Report Abuse All is conjecture. They figure that shale has to contain the fuel they need.
carlsonguitars Champion Author Portland Posts:4,229 Points:699,850 Joined:Jan 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:30:29 PM Ignore carlsonguitars Report Abuse we aren't going to run out of natural gas.... but it pollutes and is waaaaaaaaaay too expensive!!! Talk about a rip off, it costs about TRIPLE the price of electric (wind energy for you who want to rip apart the pollutes too much comment)... We really need more affordable energy, especially when it comes to CARS!!!
PetroScopper Champion Author Houston Posts:2,198 Points:600,425 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:29:37 PM Ignore PetroScopper Report Abuse Maybe natural gas will be the future...
mjc2002 Rookie Author Utah Posts:72 Points:62,795 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:29:37 PM Ignore mjc2002 Report Abuse it isnt a myth. my father worked as a mechanic in wyoming in 1960's. for wurthin (i dont know the spelling) machinery. they repaired the oil rigs cats and trucks. the "gas hills" of wyoming arent named that by accident. dad had to pick his way through 24 CAPPED NG wells to get to a site to fix a cat. each CAPPED well has over 24-240 MILLION cubit feet of gas beneath it.... church buttes wyomng is the same.. about 14 such sites this was in the 60's and the wells havent been tapped, still capped...we saw one while deer hunting in 1997... 112 million CF of NG there are hundreds of these things out there... why think T boon pickins is pushing for NG cars? [Edited by: mjc2002 at 3/14/2010 12:30:50 AM EST]
Ready Eddie All-Star Author Twin Cities Posts:769 Points:372,415 Joined:Feb 2003	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:27:57 PM Ignore Ready Eddie Report Abuse That is the basis of all business. Guess what will happen.
4warned Champion Author Michigan Posts:4,243 Points:1,257,935 Joined:Nov 2006	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:23:25 PM Ignore 4warned Report Abuse Why is speculation involved in every discussion about energy?
skybiker Champion Author South Carolina Posts:3,340 Points:663,205 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:22:48 PM Ignore skybiker Report Abuse We haven't yet discovered all the Nat Gas deposits.....
rxman1 Champion Author Toledo Posts:4,352 Points:908,455 Joined:Nov 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:22:01 PM Ignore rxman1 Report Abuse We need all sources of fuel. Do not waist any of them.
Blue_Cruzer Champion Author Lexington Posts:3,003 Points:772,410 Joined:Mar 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:21:53 PM Ignore Blue_Cruzer Report Abuse We should still conserve our resources.
computernut2008 Champion Author Ohio Posts:1,661 Points:401,215 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:20:43 PM Ignore computernut2008 Report Abuse They don't have a clue
greenfog Champion Author Illinois Posts:1,724 Points:676,450 Joined:Feb 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:19:01 PM Ignore greenfog Report Abuse looks like this all about different companies opinions then the facts. they may not know the facts and opinions are going to be based on profits.
TBONE3 Champion Author Pennsylvania Posts:3,890 Points:1,004,670 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:15:05 PM Ignore TBONE3 Report Abuse Everyone has an idea- opinion - about the subject.
MDTDriver Champion Author California Posts:4,972 Points:1,191,590 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:13:35 PM Ignore MDTDriver Report Abuse As with most thing only time will tell, except the price of gas at the pump!
milespergallon Champion Author Illinois Posts:4,998 Points:1,050,420 Joined:Feb 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:12:43 PM Ignore milespergallon Report Abuse We don't really know the truth because not every thing has been explored and there are many that have not been reported that they already know about!
EVBuddy Champion Author Nevada Posts:11,714 Points:2,061,210 Joined:Sep 2004	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:09:06 PM Ignore EVBuddy Report Abuse Nothing stays the same.
rippinusoff Champion Author Lexington Posts:2,479 Points:514,465 Joined:May 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:06:48 PM Ignore rippinusoff Report Abuse speculation
TommyTraveler Champion Author Cincinnati Posts:3,691 Points:722,030 Joined:Nov 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:06:13 PM Ignore TommyTraveler Report Abuse Drill Drill and Drill.
The_Gunslinger Champion Author Arkansas Posts:1,897 Points:384,340 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:05:25 PM Ignore The_Gunslinger Report Abuse How natural IS this gas?
Jarod13 Champion Author Virginia Posts:2,885 Points:639,475 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:02:45 PM Ignore Jarod13 Report Abuse CatMan623 -- I'm with you, keep on drilling.
moody4u Champion Author Cincinnati Posts:2,984 Points:576,100 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 6:02:38 PM Ignore moody4u Report Abuse Drill baby DRILL!!!
Jarod13 Champion Author Virginia Posts:2,885 Points:639,475 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 5:59:22 PM Ignore Jarod13 Report Abuse CatMan623 -- I'm with you, keep on drilling.
CatMan623 Champion Author Houston Posts:8,597 Points:1,382,800 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 5:58:56 PM Ignore CatMan623 Report Abuse Keep drillin'...
jay4 Champion Author Colorado Springs Posts:5,792 Points:1,326,080 Joined:Apr 2006	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 5:49:45 PM Ignore jay4 Report Abuse NG "from shale formations can be extracted at a low price"? That's not what as determined here in Coloradeo! High cost of energy, water, and waate disposal. [Edited by: jay4 at 3/13/2010 11:51:36 PM EST]
EVBuddy Champion Author Nevada Posts:11,714 Points:2,061,210 Joined:Sep 2004	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 5:49:13 PM Ignore EVBuddy Report Abuse Then WHAT?
EVBuddy Champion Author Nevada Posts:11,714 Points:2,061,210 Joined:Sep 2004	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 5:48:35 PM Ignore EVBuddy Report Abuse With a growing supply of electricity from renewable sources, electricity is the key.
nimpy Champion Author Indianapolis Posts:4,127 Points:894,770 Joined:Oct 2007	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 5:46:24 PM Ignore nimpy Report Abuse They want to run anything with anything